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Archive for the ‘Radio Buying & Selling’ Category
A common discussion theme in recent weeks has been the impact of the ongoing stock market volatility/wealth destruction on station trading and values. While the gyrations have certainly exacted a psychological toll, I do not believe that they have hindered private market station trading and valuations. Yet.
At least so far, this has not been like Fall 2008, when the brakes were applied with full force. You will recall that at that time, there was some (genuine!) fear of a world-wide economic collapse. This time, the fear seems a little more future oriented (i.e. “we may still face major hurdles, but not this afternoon”). The bank weakness in Europe and the possible repercussions are bad, but not life-threatening. Likewise, the spending problem in Washington is curable once the politicians grow the backbone to actually deal with it.
Some of you may have seen my recent post: “Randy Michaels is getting the old band back together in Chi-town. This time with a horn section. Second thoughts, Tribune?”
And Dick Taylor added on Twitter: “Horn section? More like a brass band. It will truly be the ‘noise you can’t ignore.’”
Randy has his fans and detractors (I am solidly in the former camp), but whichever way you fall, there is no denying his impact on our industry. His return to station ownership after being unceremoniously dumped by the Tribune Board has attracted a lot of attention. And I believe that he will make a major impact in the Chicago and New York radio markets (and perhaps others down the road).
It is interesting to note that two within our small group have already joined the band (John Gehron and Walt Sabo). John’s title is “Chairman, Advisory Board,” and Walt was named Chief Operating Officer. John was previously recruited by Randy to run the Chicago cluster for Clear Channel. In addition, Liz Aiello, former SVP of Broadcast at Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, was recruited as Vice President, New York, and Andy Friedman as VP/Internet Initiatives. Friedman was most recently VP/Interactive Content at Tribune. Finally, Greg Janoff joins as EVP of Revenue; he was previously VP, Branded Entertainment Sales at MyDamnChannel/RAMP Video.
In true Randy Michaels style, Merlin Media (http://merlinmediallc.com/) has posted the following “Rules for Merlin Magicians”:
Rule # 1 – Use your best judgment.
Rule # 2 – See rule number one.
Merlin Media LLC is buying Emmis Communications’ WKQX-FM (101.1 MHz, Chicago, IL), WLUP-FM (97.9 MHz, Chicago, IL) and WRXP-FM (101.9 MHz, New York, NY). It is backed by GTCR, a Chicago private equity firm.
Our own Stephan Sloan did some good work analyzing this transaction. Steph reckons that the actual purchase price came in between $157 million and $158 million, payable as follows:
$110 million cash plus $47 million preferred equity, or
$130 million cash plus $28 million preferred equity
A number of different purchase price estimates have been floated in the press. The difference seems to rest with the valuation of the common equity kicker being retained by Emmis. We have no crystal ball for the potential future value of the common piece. If things go well with the operation, Emmis stands to reap the benefit of the ride. In our view, the purchase price represents full present value for the seller (Emmis) and is not in any way depressed. By the same token, if Randy can work his magic (again), he could build a lot of value quickly.
Prior to the announcement, we valued these stations at $155 million:
New York stick value: $71,000,000
Chicago stick value: $42,000,000
Though we were off by $1 million to $2 million, these valuations yielded stick values of $4.62 per pop in New York and $6.13 per pop in Chicago (based on the stations’ 60 dBu contours). We have been advising our clients for the last several months that stick values were running between $4 and $6, certainly in line with this transaction. And while a long way from the former high in the low $20, it is worth noting that the New York deal represents a full 50% increase over the last stick sale (WQXR) in the market.
Bottom line: I’m glad I don’t work for Tribune.
TUESDAY, APRIL 26, 2011
Report from the NAB Show in Las Vegas
We were back at the Encore for the second year (after a long run at the Bellagio). Attendance for the show was reported up over last year; the traffic in our suite would tend to bear that out. All of our guys were busy with meetings on Monday and Tuesday; some stayed over for meetings on Wednesday as well.
The “tone” was noticeably improved over the last couple of years. We all continue to lament the absence of senior debt, but there is are active crowds of both buyers and sellers. And in spite of the lack of bank financing, some deals are actually getting done (also a marked improvement over prior years).
Station operations are generally continuing their upward trend in performance. Most operators had a pretty good year last year and expect even better results in 2011. As you might expect, there was a lot of chatter about the Citadel/Cumulus and the Bonneville/Hubbard deals. Most believe that the valuation of these two deals sets the high water mark for BCF multiples. We agree. Our company opinion is that those deals traded in roughly the 8.0x to 8.5x range (or at least will be there by the closing dates). Buyers are offering 6’s and sellers are asking 8’s for the less prime inventory. The deals which are getting done appear to be in the 7’s.
Tower sales continue to be of interest. The tower trading marketplace is robust with well-financed and aggressive buyers. Tower cash flow multiples are 8x to 10x for broadcast and high teens and up for wireless.
While most of my time was spent in our suite in meetings, I did make it to Erwin Krasnow’s annual FCC Breakfast at the Las Vegas Country Club. It was well attended and a good show, as always.
Next stop, the Radio Show in Chicago in the Fall.
George
Media Services Group
